Is Europe Prepared For a Refugee Crisis?
By: Julia Mazurek
Over 2.5 million refugees have crossed foreign borders due to the effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The United Nations Refugee Agency predicts that the number will top 4 million by mid 2022. As the fastest accelerating refugee crisis since World War II looms around a mysteriously dark corner, one may wonder – is Europe prepared for yet another reshape of its economic landscape?
Those forced to flee are headed in many directions. The majority are choosing Poland as a destination, however many are also crossing the land borders to Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary. Ukrainians are currently being warmly greeted in each and every destination they reach – frequently also being offered free public transportation, discounted meals, temporary housing, and many comforting hugs. What are now proper acts of generosity and compassion will without a doubt have many long term effects on the continent.
Members of the European Union acted quite unanimously in response to the arising refugee crisis, with some implementing a wider set of policies directed at helping those fleeing than others, due to closer geographical proximity to Ukraine and a bigger inflow of refugees. On Thursday, March 10th, the European Council triggered the so-called “Temporary Protection Directive” which not only aims to protect those fleeing Ukraine for one calendar year with the possibility of a two year extension, but also prevents those in power from being obligated to spend days on end digging through asylum claims for each individual crossing a border. Considering the fractures remaining in the European Union after the 2015-16 refugee crisis and, additionally, given the cold approach of Greece, Hungary, and Poland, amongst others in recent years to the welcoming of asylum-seekers from countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, in the case of Ukraine, the political union may be said to have acted uncommonly rapidly and generously.
The steady actions taken till this day, however, represents only the first small step of the EU on a steep staircase of what will be a lengthy acclimatization process for both sides – refugees and host communities. Some of the questions that ought to be raised soon are on the topics of healthcare, temporary and permanent housing provision, employment opportunities, proper educational curriculums, and access to psychological help for those arriving from war-torn Ukraine.
It is crucial to note that Ukrainians have been an important labor source in many European countries ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with many filling labor shortage gaps in steady parts of the economy such as the industry sector and contributing to increased output. The shock that is going to disturb European economies in the upcoming few months, however, is like nothing seen in the past. Such a large inflow of individuals into the labor force will urge EU governments to swiftly turn to labor policies which will simultaneously enable a smooth transition for Ukrainians and prevent unemployment levels as well as wages from getting out of control. It will be intriguing to see what actions will be taken in this instance considering the still recent distress caused to the labor force by the Covid-19 pandemic.
One matter is certain – successful long-term integration is necessary for all involved in this catastrophic scenario. Preventing overcrowded schools and public services from becoming strained should be prioritized by European policymakers before unrest arises. If action is not taken, the currently open-arms of Europeans stand at a risk of transforming into clenched fists as citizens might progressively begin to view the costs of welcoming Ukrainians as far greater than expected. Being hospitable is humanitarian, however managing the consequences of too many guests is a common side-effect. One may now ask – where does the border between civil society solidarity and the protection of the stability of national systems lie in different European countries?